THE #1 QUESTION CLIENTS ASKED ME IN 2025

Hope everyone had a great Christmas and holiday break.

After two weeks of my little guys being home, I think I need a break from the break.

 

As we finish the year, I mainly just want to say thank you. The trust you place in us is something I don’t take for granted, and it pushes us to keep working hard and trying to add real value for you and your families.

The longest-running happiness study puts it well: “warm, close relationships” matter more than wealth or fame. A good reminder that, beyond markets and headlines, it’s really about the people you surround yourself with.

That’s exactly what “Surround” means to us. We want to work with people we enjoy and who enjoy working with us — simple as that.

Thanks again for the partnership this year.

On to 2026.

A quick personal update:

On the personal front, time is now measured by kid milestones more than calendars — and somehow Zain is already 3 and Arman is 5.

The 2025 highlights included our second trip to Mexico in April (yes, we left on Liberation Day… great planning), plus the usual greatest hits: the zoo, Niagara, Centre Island, Ripley’s, our first Jays game (amazing…), our first TFC game (disaster…) and every park within driving distance.

Here’s a glimpse into my year:

The big milestone: Tami and I hit our 10-year wedding anniversary this year.
Hard to believe it’s been a decade already — lots packed into those ten years.

Markets in 2025

By now it’s probably no surprise to anyone that 2025 turned out to be another strong year almost across the board.

Not much has changed since my mid-year update → Read here

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs back in April remained the single biggest market-moving event of the year. Yes, there were AI valuation worries and a government shutdown in the back half of the year, but markets mostly shrugged and kept grinding higher.

Pick an asset class and it was likely up: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, bonds, gold — all positive. Bitcoin was the notable outlier, with a meaningful pullback in the second half of 2025 that left it negative on the year.

Interestingly, non-U.S. markets led the way:

“Most major equity markets have outperformed the U.S. in 2025 as geographic diversification has, for the first time in many years, benefited investors,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Peter Oppenheimer.

But looking at year-end statements can make it seem easier than it felt in real time. It certainly didn’t feel calm while we were living through it.

Tariffs, wars, inflation, political unpredictability, slowing labour market, government shutdowns, DOGE, AI worries and repeated geopolitical flare-ups dominated the headlines.

You’re probably thinking —

“How can markets be near all-time highs when the world doesn’t feel good?”

That was the single most common question I heard in 2025.

If I had to answer in one word, it would be this: 👉 Earnings.

Earnings — and expectations for future earnings — are arguably the single most important long-term driver of stock prices.

When company earnings rise, markets generally follow. It’s not perfect, but over time the two lines basically track each other.

The key idea:

The stock market is not a scoreboard of how the world feels. It’s a pricing machine for the future earnings of businesses.

That’s why markets can be strong even when the news doesn’t feel great.

We’re invested in some of the biggest and best-run companies in the world — businesses that continue to grow regardless of where we are in the economic cycle.

Ask it this way:

• Is Amazon’s revenue dependent on who is President?
• Will Nvidia sell fewer AI chips if unemployment ticks up?
• Will Eli Lilly sell fewer obesity drugs because of geopolitical tension?

We aren’t “invested in” politics, headlines, or arguments on TV.

We’re invested in companies, and those things only matter when they affect earnings.

Do they sometimes affect earnings? Absolutely:

• if tariffs raise costs and squeeze profits — it matters
• if higher prices reduce consumer spending — it matters
• if recession cuts jobs and people spend less at Costco — it matters

But here’s what actually happened:

👉 In 2025, companies grew earnings by more than 10%.

That means, on average, U.S. companies earned roughly 10% more than in 2024.

That’s the part the headlines rarely talk about.

Yes — other forces helped too:

• lower interest rates
• AI investment
• a rebound in sentiment after Liberation Day

But at the end of the day, the story is straightforward: earnings grew — and markets followed.

Looking ahead to 2026

What’s in store for 2026?

Stay tuned — I’ll be sharing my 2026 outlook in the first few weeks of January.

For now, enjoy the rest of the holiday season.
Wishing you and your families a healthy, happy, and successful 2026.

Adil Mohammed, CFP®, CIM®, FCSI®
Wealth Advisor
Assante Financial Management Ltd.

 

The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Financial Management Ltd. This material is provided for general information and the opinions expressed and information provided herein are subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness. Before acting on the information presented, please seek professional financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.